SHARED BY BOTH MODES · 13 SEPTEMBER 2026
How does a chest choose your loot?
Base categories follow Riot’s Hextech table. This is not an exact copy of the live LoL item pool.
| Outcome | Base rate |
|---|---|
| Skin shard | 50% |
| Champion shard → 50 orange essence | 25% |
| Emote permanent | 10% |
| Ward shard + 150 orange essence | 11.5% |
| Icon permanent + 150 orange essence | 3.5% |
Source: Riot Games Hextech Crafting FAQ · Checked 13 September 2026.
Bad luck protection
After two consecutive non-skin chests, the third gives a skin shard. This increases the long-run skin share from the base 50% to about 57.14%. Batches are processed one chest at a time, updating protection after each draw.
Bonus drops
Each opening has an independent 10% chance of a bonus chest and key. It grants one extra opening in clicker mode. Unlimited mode records the bonus; it does not automatically open another chest.
Mythic essence drops in batches of 10, with a guaranteed drop by chest 50. A constant base chance calibrated to the published 3.6% long-run rate is combined with that cap. Riot does not publish its internal protection curve, so this algorithm is our approximation.
Where this simulator differs
- Champion shards automatically give 50 orange essence. Treating all champions as available and this low conversion value are custom rules.
- Ward and icon results give 150 orange essence. Non-skin rewards are category counters, not a full champion, emote or ward catalog.
- Skin artwork selection does not match live loot eligibility or rarity. Skin tiers and upgrade costs use a custom arcade model.
- Exclusive Hextech skin bonus drops and actual ultimate/mythic permanent-item rules are not modeled. Full parity with the official game is not claimed.
- Modes have separate saves. Unlimited mode stores totals; the latest visual reveal lasts for the current session.
Extra experiment: custom skin tiers
The lab below studies custom tiers conditional on receiving a skin. It does not measure primary chest categories or Riot skin rarity.